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Narcolepsy: Opportunity Analysis and Forecasts to 2027

  • Published Date: 04 Jun 2018
  • Number of Pages: 103
  • Category: Pharmaceuticals
  • Country: Global
Narcolepsy: Opportunity Analysis and Forecasts to 2027

Summary

Narcolepsy is a chronic sleep disorder characterized by two major symptoms, excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) and cataplexy. There are two forms of narcolepsy recognized by The International Classification of Sleep Disorders: narcolepsy with cataplexy, also called narcolepsy type 1 (NT1); and narcolepsy without cataplexy, known as narcolepsy type 2 (NT2). NT1 is most commonly caused by a deficiency of central nervous system (CNS) hypocretin (hcrt also called orexin) in the hypothalamus, while the cause for NT2 is still unknown and patients usually present normal levels of orexin.

There are currently few approved therapies available for narcolepsy; the majority of drugs are used off-label. Treatment needs to be tailored to the type of narcolepsy, NT1 or NT2. Current treatments centre on the management of sleepiness and cataplexy symptoms, modafinils remaining the standard of care in the treatment of sleepiness while sodium oxybate for cataplexy symptoms. These therapies provide the best relief of symptoms, with Provigil (modafinil) and Xyrem (sodium oxybate) being the two most popular branded drugs.

GlobalData estimates that drug sales for Narcolepsy in 2017 were approximately $1.39B across the seven major markets covered in this report. Over the 10-year forecast period, the market is expected to grow to $3.7B at a CAGR of 10.4%. This growth will be driven by the launch of five late-stage pipeline products. The two highest selling drugs are expected to be Avadels/ Sodium oxybate ER and Jazz Pharmaceuticals/JZP-258, which both address some of the unmet needs in the market.

Key Questions Answered

- What are the key Narcolepsy treatments in 2017?
- When will the late stage pipeline products launch, and how will it affect drug sales and the overall Narcolepsy market in the 7MM?
- Which unmet needs will remain unaddressed in the forecast period and what opportunities remain for pharmaceutical companies?

Scope

- Overview of Narcolepsy, including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and disease management.
- Annualized Narcolepsy therapeutics market revenue, cost of therapy per patient, and treatment usage patterns in two patient segments (Type 1 and Type 2) forecast from 2017 to 2027.
- Key topics covered include strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, clinical trial mapping and implications for the Narcolepsy therapeutics market
- Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data assessing emerging trends and mechanisms of action under development for Narcolepsy therapy. The most promising candidates in Phase III development are profiled.
- Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global Narcolepsy therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.

Reasons to buy

The report will enable you to -
- Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.
- Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global Narcolepsy therapeutics market.
- Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global Narcolepsy therapeutics market in the future.
- Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analysing the performance of various competitors.
- Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
- Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.
Publisher Name : GlobalData

2
1.1 List of Tables 4
1.2 List of Figures 5
2 Narcolepsy: Executive Summary 6
2.1 Significant Growth Is Expected in the Narcolepsy Market from 2017 to 2027 7
2.2 R&D and Corporate Strategies within the Narcolepsy Market 9
2.3 High Unmet Needs in Current Treatments and Low Awareness Exist in Narcolepsy 10
2.4 JZP-110 Is Expected to Revolutionize the Treatment of Sleepiness in Narcolepsy Patients 10
2.5 Late-Stage Pipeline Drugs Will Be a Key Driver of Growth in the Narcolepsy Market 11
2.6 What Do Physicians Think? 13
3 Introduction 15
3.1 Catalyst 15
3.2 Related Reports 15
4 Disease Overview 16
4.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology 16
4.1.1 Etiology 16
4.1.2 Pathophysiology 20
4.2 Classification or Staging Systems 21
5 Epidemiology 24
5.1 Disease Background 24
5.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities 25
5.3 Global and Historical Trends 25
5.4 Forecast Methodology 26
5.4.1 Sources Used 27
5.4.2 Sources Not Used 28
5.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods 28
5.4.4 7MM 28
5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Narcolepsy (2017-2027) 33
5.5.1 Total Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined) 33
5.5.2 Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined) 34
5.5.3 Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined) 35
5.5.4 Total Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy by Subtypes 36
5.5.5 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined) 37
5.5.6 Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined) 38
5.5.7 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined) 39
5.6 Discussion 39
5.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight 39
5.6.2 Limitations of Analysis 40
5.6.3 Strengths of Analysis 41
6 Current Treatment Options 42
6.1 Overview 42
7 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment 45
7.1 Overview 45
7.2 Improved Efficacy and Safety Profile of Current Treatments 46
7.3 Better Diagnosis 49
7.4 Physician Awareness 51
7.5 Disease-Modifying and Curative drugs 53
8 R&D Strategies 56
8.1 Overview 56
8.1.1 Nonhypocretin Therapies 56
8.1.2 Hypocretin-Based Therapies 60
8.2 Clinical Trials Design 63
8.2.1 Efficacy Endpoints 64
8.2.2 Patient Inclusion 65
8.2.3 Type of Clinical Trial and Trial Locations 65
9 Pipeline Assessment 66
9.1 Overview 66
10 Pipeline Valuation Analysis 69
10.1 Clinical Benchmarks of Key Pipeline Drugs 69
10.2 Commercial Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs 70
10.3 Competitive Assessment 71
10.4 Top-Line 10-Year Forecast 73
10.4.1 US 77
10.4.2 5EU 79
10.4.3 Japan 80
11 Appendix 82
11.1 Bibliography 82
11.2 Abbreviations 86
11.3 Methodology 89
11.3.1 Forecasting Methodology 89
11.3.2 Diagnosed Patients 89
11.3.3 Percent Drug-Treated Patients 89
11.3.4 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class 90
11.3.5 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates 90
11.3.6 General Pricing Assumptions 91
11.3.7 Individual Drug Assumptions 92
11.3.8 Generic Erosion 96
11.3.9 Pricing of Pipeline Agents 96
11.4 Primary Research - KOLs Interviewed for This Report 97
11.4.1 KOLs 97
11.5 Primary Research - Prescriber Survey 98
11.6 About the Authors 99
11.6.1 Analyst 99
11.6.2 Therapy Area Director 99
11.6.3 Epidemiologist 99
11.6.4 Managing Epidemiologist 100
11.6.5 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology 100
11.6.6 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy 101
11.7 About GlobalData 102
11.8 Contact Us 102
11.9 Disclaimer 103

List Of Tables


Table 1: Narcolepsy: Key Metrics in the 7MM 6
Table 2: Symptoms of Narcolepsy 23
Table 3: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Narcolepsy 25
Table 4: Treatment Guidelines for Narcolepsy 43
Table 5: Leading Treatments for Narcolepsy, 2017 44
Table 6: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for Narcolepsy, 2017-2027 68
Table 7: Clinical Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs - Narcolepsy 69
Table 8: Commercial Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs - Narcolepsy 71
Table 9: Key Events Impacting Sales for Narcolepsy, 2017-2027 76
Table 10: Narcolepsy Market - Global Drivers and Barriers, 2017-2027 76
Table 11: Key Historical and Projected Launch Dates for Narcolepsy 90
Table 12: Key Historical and Projected Patent Expiry Dates for Narcolepsy 91
Table 13: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, by Country 98

List Of Figures


Figure 1: Global Sales Forecast by Country for Narcolepsy in 2017 and 2027 8
Figure 2: Competitive Assessment of the Marketed and Pipeline Drugs Benchmarked Against the Standard of Care (SOC), Modafinil 12
Figure 3: Mechanisms of Sleepiness in Narcolepsy 17
Figure 4: Mechanisms of Cataplexy in Narcolepsy 18
Figure 5: 7MM, Age-Standardized Total Prevalence of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined), Men and Women, Ages 15 Years, 2017 26
Figure 6: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast Total Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined) 27
Figure 7: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT 2 Combined) 28
Figure 8: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined), Both Sexes, Ages 15 Years, N, 2017 33
Figure 9: 7MM, Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined), Both Sexes, Ages 15 Years, N, 2017 34
Figure 10: 7MM, Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined), Ages 15 Years, N, 2017 35
Figure 11: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy by Subtypes, Both Sexes, Ages 15 Years, N, 2017 36
Figure 12: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined), Both Sexes, Ages 15 Years, N, 2017 37
Figure 13: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined), Both Sexes, Ages 15 Years, N, 2017 38
Figure 14: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined), Ages 15 Years, N, 2017 39
Figure 15: Unmet Needs and Opportunities in Narcolepsy 46
Figure 16: Overview of the Development Pipeline in Narcolepsy 67
Figure 17: Key Phase II/III Trials for the Promising Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects be Licensed for Narcolepsy in the 7MM During the Forecast Period 68
Figure 18: Competitive Assessment of the Marketed and Pipeline Drugs Benchmarked Against the SOC, Modafinil 72
Figure 19: Global (7MM) Sales Forecast by Country for Narcolepsy in 2017 and 2027 74
Figure 20: Global Sales Forecast by Class for Narcolepsy in 2017 and 2027 75
Figure 21: Sales Forecast by Class for Narcolepsy in the US in 2017 and 2027 78
Figure 22: Sales Forecast by Class for Narcolepsy in the EU in 2017 and 2027 80
Figure 23: Sales Forecast by Class for Narcolepsy in Japan in 2017 and 2027 81

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