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Global Risk Report Quarterly Update: Q3 2017

  • Published Date: 01 Mar 2018
  • Number of Pages: 79
  • Category: Finance and Banking
  • Country: Global
Global Risk Report Quarterly Update: Q3 2017

Summary

The fourth update version of GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) Q3 2017 ranks Singapore at the top followed by Sweden and Switzerland. 31 countries were identified in the very low risk zone, 34 countries in the low risk zone, 37 countries under manageable risk, 27 countries under high risk and seven countries in the very high risk zone in GCRI Q3 2017.

Scope

- Asia-Pacific ranks second in terms of regional risk after the Europe. India and Indonesia registered improvements in their risk profiles. Despite this, downside risk remains in the form of geopolitical tensions, tapering by central banks, sudden capital outflows, and Chinese debt. The region is the fastest growing in the world and remained the main driver of the growth in 2017.
- While economic indicators in Europe remain strong and an expected recovery is imminent, the region is plagued by political risk and uncertainties stemming from events such as Brexit, independence referendums, and rise in nationalism. It is the lowest risk region in the world.
- Americas is the third highest risk region according to the GCRI 2017 Q3 update, with a regional risk score of 42.61 out of 100. While risk has been reduced and economic growth revived, figures remain skewed. North America continues to perform well whereas Latin America and the Caribbean is weak. Commodity exporters are suffering economically and this has manifested itself in social unrest and political turmoil in some countries.
- The Middle East and Africa (MEA) was the highest risk region according to the GCRI 2017 Q3 update, with a regional risk score of 47.12 out of 100. The region continues to be plagued by social conflicts, geopolitical turmoil, and weak economic performance.

Reasons to buy

- Global Risk Report is based on GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.
- The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from GlobalData Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, GlobalData analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.
Publisher Name : GlobalData

2
1.1 List of Tables 4
1.2 List of Figures 4
2 Flashback 2017 6
3 Key Events in 2018 7
4 Global Overview - Summary 8
4.1 Growth and lower levels of risk to pave the way for 2018 8
4.2 Global Overview- Key Highlights
9
5 GCRI - Country Ranking 12
6 GCRI: Global Landscape 2017 14
7 Regional Analysis 15
7.1 Asia Pacific Region 15
7.1.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 15
7.1.2 Asia Pacific Region- Risk Highlights 16
7.1.3 Political Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 18
7.1.4 Economic Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 20
7.1.5 Social Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 24
7.1.6 Technology Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 25
7.1.7 Legal Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 26
7.1.8 Environment Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 27
7.2 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q3 2017 28
7.3 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q3 2017 29
7.4 Europe Region 30
7.4.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 30
7.4.2 Europe - Risk Highlights 31
7.4.3 Political Outlook: Europe Region 33
7.4.4 Economic Outlook: Europe 35
7.4.5 Social Outlook: Europe 39
7.4.6 Technology Outlook: Europe Region 40
7.4.7 Legal Outlook: Europe 41
7.4.8 Environment Outlook: Europe Region 42
7.5 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q3 2017 43
7.6 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q3 2017 43
7.7 Americas 45
7.7.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 45
7.7.2 Americas - Risk Highlights 46
7.7.3 Political Outlook: Americas 48
7.7.4 Economic Outlook: Americas 50
7.7.5 Social Outlook: Americas 53
7.7.6 Technological Outlook: Americas 54
7.7.7 Legal Outlook: Americas 55
7.7.8 Environment Outlook: Americas 56
7.8 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q3 2017 57
7.9 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q3 2017 57
7.10 Middle East and Africa 59
7.10.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 59
7.10.2 Middle East and Africa - Key Highlights
60
7.10.3 Political Outlook: Middle East and Africa 62
7.10.4 Economic Outlook: Middle East and Africa 64
7.10.5 Social Outlook: Middle East and Africa 66
7.10.6 Technological Outlook: Middle East and Africa 67
7.10.7 Legal Outlook: Middle East and Africa 68
7.10.8 Environment Outlook: Middle East and Africa 69
7.11 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q3 2017 70
7.12 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q3 2017 70
8 Methodology and Appendix 72
8.1 Country Ranking and Scores 72
8.1.1 Europe 72
8.1.2 Americas 73
8.1.3 Asia Pacific 74
8.1.4 Middle East and Africa 75
8.2 GCRI - Methodology and Sources 76
8.2.1 Snapshot of Methodology: 76
8.2.2 Secondary sources 77
8.3 Contact Us 79
8.4 Disclaimer 79

List Of Tables

1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Asia Pacific Region- Risk Highlights 17
Table 2: Key Economic variables - Asia-Pacific 21
Table 3: Europe - Risk Highlights 32
Table 4: Key Economic variables - Europe Region 36
Table 5: Americas - Risk Highlights 47
Table 6: Key Economic variables - Americas 51
Table 7: Middle East and Africa - Key Highlights
61
Table 8: Key Economic variables 65
Table 9: GCRI - Methodology and Sources 78

List Of Figures

1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: Flashback 2017 6
Figure 2: Key Events to look forward in 2018 7
Figure 3: Global Growth and Inflation 8
Figure 4: Risk Movement 2017 9
Figure 5: GCRI - Global Risk Heat Map 12
Figure 6: Overall Risk Summary - Q3 2017 13
Figure 7: Global Risk - At a Glance 14
Figure 8: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 15
Figure 9: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2017 16
Figure 10: Regional Risk Scores: 2017 17
Figure 11: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in Asia-Pacific 18
Figure 12: Nations with Highest Political Risk in Asia-Pacific 18
Figure 13: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in Asia-Pacific 20
Figure 14: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in Asia-Pacific 20
Figure 15: Real GDP Growth Rate - Key Asian Nations 21
Figure 16: Key Regional Indices 22
Figure 17: Chinas Debt Reached 258% of GDP 23
Figure 18: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in Asia-Pacific 24
Figure 19: Nations with Highest Social Risk in Asia-Pacific 24
Figure 20: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in Asia-Pacific 25
Figure 21: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in Asia-Pacific 25
Figure 22: Nations with lowest legal risk in Asia-Pacific 26
Figure 23: Nations with highest legal risk in Asia-Pacific 26
Figure 24: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in Asia-Pacific 27
Figure 25: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in Asia-Pacific 27
Figure 26: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 30
Figure 27: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2017 31
Figure 28: Regional Risk Scores: 2017 32
Figure 29: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in Europe 33
Figure 30: Nations with Highest Political Risk in Europe 33
Figure 31: Euro Sentiments Rises Across The EU 34
Figure 32: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in Europe 35
Figure 33: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in Europe 35
Figure 34: Market Sentiments in Euro Area 36
Figure 35: Real GDP Growth Rate -Key European Nations 37
Figure 36: Key Regional Indices 38
Figure 37: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in Europe 39
Figure 38: Nations with Highest Social Risk in Europe 39
Figure 39: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in Europe 40
Figure 40: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in Europe 40
Figure 41: Nations with Lowest Legal Risk in Europe 41
Figure 42: Nations with Highest Legal Risk in Europe 41
Figure 43: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in Europe 42
Figure 44: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in Europe 42
Figure 45: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 45
Figure 46: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2017 46
Figure 47: Regional Risk Scores: 2017 47
Figure 48: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in Americas 48
Figure 49: Nations with Highest Political Risk in Americas 48
Figure 50: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in Americas 50
Figure 51: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in Americas 50
Figure 52: Real GDP Growth Rate - Key American Nations 51
Figure 53: Key Regional Indices 52
Figure 54: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in Americas 53
Figure 55: Nations with Highest Social Risk in Americas 53
Figure 56: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in Americas 54
Figure 57: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in Americas 54
Figure 58: Nations with Lowest Legal Risk in Americas 55
Figure 59: Nations with Highest Legal Risk in Americas 55
Figure 60: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in Americas 56
Figure 61: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in Americas 56
Figure 62: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 59
Figure 63: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2017 60
Figure 64: Regional Risk Scores: 2017 60
Figure 65: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in MEA 62
Figure 66: Nations with Highest Political Risk in MEA 62
Figure 67: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in MEA 64
Figure 68: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in MEA 64
Figure 69: Real Gdp Growth Rate - Key Nations in MEA 65
Figure 70: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in MEA 66
Figure 71: Nations with Highest Social Risk in MEA 66
Figure 72: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in MEA 67
Figure 73: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in MEA 67
Figure 74: Nations with Lowest Legal Risk in MEA 68
Figure 75: Nations with Highest Legal Risk in MEA 68
Figure 76: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in MEA 69
Figure 77: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in MEA 69
Figure 78: Country Ranking and Scores, Europe 72
Figure 79: Country Ranking and Scores, Americas 73
Figure 80: Country Ranking and Scores, Asia Pacific 74
Figure 81: Country Ranking and Scores, Middle East and Africa 75
Figure 82: Broad Categories and Weights Behind the Index 77

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