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Global Construction Outlook to 2022 - Q4 2018 Update

  • Published Date: 28 Dec 2018
  • Number of Pages: 70
  • Category: Construction
  • Country: Global
Global Construction Outlook to 2022 - Q4 2018 Update

Summary

GlobalData has revised downwards the forecast for growth in the global construction industry over the forecast period (2018-2022) to an annual average of 3.4% from 3.6% previously. The revision primarily reflects a weaker estimated outturn in 2018 in China and South Korea, which has pulled the forecast for growth in North-East Asia to 3.4%, as well as a flatter growth trend in the US. In real value terms (measured at constant 2017 prices and US$ exchange rates), global construction output is forecast to rise to US$12.9 trillion in 2022, up from US$10.9 trillion in 2017.

There are intensifying downside risks to global economic growth, notably stemming from the erupting trade war between the US and China, but the global economy will continue to expand in the range of 2.5% to 3% a year in 2018-2022. The tightening in monetary policy in major markets will push up the cost of borrowing, but given that interest rates are generally at or near historical lows, this process is not expected to have a major impact on construction activity during the early part of the forecast period. Construction output growth will improve remain at 3.1% in 2018, unchanged from the rate recorded in 2017, before accelerating to 3.5% in 2019.

This report provides a detailed analysis of the prospects for the global construction industry up to 2022.

Key Highlights


- In the US, President Trump hopes to speed up growth in the US economy by cutting taxes, slashing regulation and increasing infrastructure spending; so far, however, much of Trumps economic agenda has not made it through Congress. GlobalData remains bearish over the political reality of the expanded US$1.5 trillion infrastructure plan, and does not expect to see such an enormous investment. Nevertheless, the construction outlook for the US in 2018-2019 remains solid, and GlobalData expects to see ongoing investment in the sector over the forecast period.
- Growth in emerging markets will remain in excess of that in advanced economies over the forecast period, and will steadily gather pace in 2018-2020. Although construction output growth in China is set to slow, to average 4.0% in 2018-2022, this will be offset by an acceleration in construction growth in India. The expansion in advanced economies will remain stable, at 2.0% in 2019-2020 before easing back over the remainder of the forecast period.
- The Asia-Pacific region will continue to account for the largest share of the global construction industry, given that it includes the large markets of China, Japan and India. The pace of growth will slow, however, given the projected slowdown in Chinas construction industry as well as weakness in South Korea. Chinas government is expected to try to curb excessive investment and avoid a disorderly debt crisis, and as such is likely to reduce its spending on major infrastructure projects.
- Construction activity is gathering momentum across Western Europe. The regions output will expand by 2.4% a year on average in 2018-2022, improving on the sluggish growth of 1.3% in 2013-2017. The expansion in the UK is subject to major downside risks in the face of uncertainty relating to the outcome of its exit from the EU. Monetary policy within the EU will remain accommodating for much of the forecast period, given subdued inflationary pressures and moderate levels of economic growth.
- There were sharp contractions in construction output in many Eastern European countries in 2016, due to stalled EU funds. There was a sharp reversal in 2017, however, and assuming EU funding continues to flow, the region will expand by 4.3% over the forecast period. The weakness in Russias economy will continue to weigh on the countrys construction industry, but investment in road and rail projects in addition to a recovery in the oil and gas sector will support a recovery in Russias construction output.
- The Middle East and Africa region as a whole will be the fastest growing in 2018-2022, with an annual average growth of 6.0%. Countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have suffered from weakness in oil prices in recent years, as government revenues have been greatly reduced. Assuming oil prices stay relatively high, large-scale investment in infrastructure projects - mostly related to transport - will be a key driving force behind the growth in the region.
- The pace of growth in sub-Saharan Africa will be particularly strong, averaging 6.6% a year in 2018-2022. There will be a steady acceleration in construction activity in Nigeria over the forecast period to 2022, supported by government efforts to revitalize the economy by focusing on developing the countrys infrastructure. Ethiopia will be Africas star performer, with its construction industry continuing to improve in line with the countrys economic expansion.
- Construction activity in Latin America contracted in 2017, reflecting declines in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia and Chile. There will be an improvement in 2018, with the region growing by 1.2% in real terms, but the expansion will continue to be subject to downside risks, with fragile recoveries in Brazil and Mexico. Having expanded rapidly in 2017 and early 2018, there has been an abrupt halt to the pace of construction output in Argentina amid a major corruption scandal and a deterioration in economic stability.

Scope

- An overview of the outlook for the global construction industry to 2022
- Analysis of the outlook for the construction industry in major global regions: North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, South and South-East Asia, North-East Asia, Australasia, the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
- A comprehensive benchmarking of 92 leading construction markets according to construction market value and growth
- Analysis of the latest data on construction output trends in key markets.

Reasons to buy

- Evaluate regional construction trends from insight on output values and forecast data to 2022. Identify the fastest growers to enable assessment and targeting of commercial opportunities in the markets best suited to strategic focus.
- Identify the drivers in the global construction market and consider growth in emerging and developed economies. Formulate plans on where and how to engage with the market while minimizing any negative impact on revenues.
Publisher Name : GlobalData

1. GLOBAL OUTLOOK
2. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: US AND CANADA
2.1. Overview
2.2. Key Updates
3. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: LATIN AMERICA
3.1. Overview
3.2. Key Updates
4. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: WESTERN EUROPE
4.1. Overview
4.2. Key Updates
5. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: EASTERN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA
5.1. Overview
5.2. Key Updates
6. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: SOUTH AND SOUTH-EAST ASIA
6.1. Overview
6.2. Key Updates
7. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: AUSTRALASIA
7.1. Overview
7.2. Key Updates
8. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: NORTH-EAST ASIA
8.1. Overview
8.2. Key Updates
9. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
9.1. Overview
9.2. Key Updates
10. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
10.1. Overview
10.2. Key Updates
11. ABOUT GLOBALDATA
11.1. GlobalData at a Glance
11.2. GlobalData Construction
11.3. Disclaimer
11.4. Contact Us

List Of Tables


Table 1: Global Construction Output Growth (Real, % change), 2017-2022
Table 2: US and Canada, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion), 2013-2022
Table 3: Latin America, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion), 2013-2022
Table 4: Western Europe, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion), 2013-2022
Table 5: Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion), 2013-2022
Table 6: South and South-East Asia, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion), 2013-2022
Table 7: North-East Asia, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion), 2013-2022
Table 8: Australasia, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion), 2013-2022
Table 9: Middle East and North Africa, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion), 2013-2022
Table 10: Sub-Saharan Africa, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion), 2013-2022
Table 11: US and Canada, Construction Output Growth (Real, % change)
Table 12: Latin America, Construction Output Growth (Real, % change)
Table 13: Western Europe, Construction Output Growth (Real, % change)
Table 14: Eastern Europe, Construction Output Growth (Real, % change)
Table 15: South and South-East Asia, Construction Output Growth (Real, % change)
Table 16: Australasia, Construction Output Growth (Real, % change)
Table 17: North-East Asia, Construction Output Growth (Real, % change)
Table 18: Middle East and North Africa, Construction Output Growth (Real, % change)
Table 19: Sub-Saharan Africa, Construction Output Growth (Real, % change)

List Of Figures


Figure 1: Global Construction Output Growth, Advanced Economies vs Emerging Markets (Real, % change), 2013-2022
Figure 2: Global Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2013-2017 and 2018-2022
Figure 3: Global Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2018-2022
Figure 4: Global Construction Output Value (Real, 2017 US$ billion), 2017 and 2022
Figure 5: US and Canada, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2013-2017 vs 2018-2022
Figure 6: US and Canada, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2018-2022
Figure 7: US and Canada, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion)
Figure 8: The US - Construction Output Growth Gathers Pace
Figure 9: Canada - Construction Growth Decelerates Sharply
Figure 10: Latin America, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2013-2017 vs 2018-2022
Figure 11: Latin America, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2018-2022
Figure 12: Latin America, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion)
Figure 13: Brazil - The Pace of Decline Slows
Figure 14: Argentina - Construction Output Growth Decelerates
Figure 15: Mexico - Slower Growth but Continued Recovery
Figure 16: Colombia - Construction Output Picks Up Again
Figure 17: Peru - Continued Recovery
Figure 18: Chile - Construction Growth Remains Healthy
Figure 19: Western Europe, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2013-2017 vs 2018-2022
Figure 20: Western Europe, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2018-2022
Figure 21: Western Europe, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion)
Figure 22: Germany - Sharp Improvement in Civil Engineering
Figure 23: France - Construction Industry Recovers From Weak Start to the Year
Figure 24: UK - Marginal Recovery Following Poor Start to the Year
Figure 25: Sweden - Downturn in Residential Construction Contributes to Overall Contraction
Figure 26: Eastern Europe, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2013-2017 vs 2018-2022
Figure 27: Eastern Europe, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2018-2022
Figure 28: Eastern Europe, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion)
Figure 29: Romania - Back to Contraction
Figure 30: Hungary - Continued Rapid Growth in Civil Engineering
Figure 31: Czech Republic - Industry Boosted by Investment in Buildings and Infrastructure
Figure 32: Poland -Slowdown in Buildings Construction Pulls Constrains Overall Growth
Figure 33: South and South-East Asia, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2013-2017 vs 2018-2022
Figure 34: South and South-East Asia, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2018-2022
Figure 35: South and South-East Asia, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion)
Figure 36: Singapore - Construction Industry Remains Subdued
Figure 37: Thailand - Pace of Growth Picking Up
Figure 38: Philippines - Regaining Growth Momentum
Figure 39: Malaysia - Growth Continues to Slide
Figure 40: India - Construction Growth Slowing From Recent Highs
Figure 41: Indonesia - Construction Growth Slowing
Figure 42: Australasia, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2013-2017 vs 2018-2022
Figure 43: Australasia, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2018-2022
Figure 44: Australasia, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion)
Figure 45: Australia - Growth in Engineering Works Slows
Figure 46: New Zealand - Weakness in Residential Pulls Down Overall Buildings Growth
Figure 47: North-East Asia, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2013-2017 vs 2018-2022
Figure 48: North-East Asia, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2018-2022
Figure 49: North-East Asia, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion)
Figure 50: China - Construction Output Growth Continues to Slow
Figure 51: South Korea - Struggling to Generate Growth
Figure 52: Middle East and North Africa, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2013-2017 vs 2018-2022
Figure 53:Middle East and North Africa, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2018-2022
Figure 54: Middle East and Africa, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion)
Figure 55: Saudi Arabia - Construction Activity Declines Further
Figure 56: Morocco - Construction Grows Year on Year for Fourth Successive Quarter
Figure 57: Algeria - Growth Slows, but Public Investment to Remain Supportive
Figure 58: Egypt - Construction Growth Remains High
Figure 59: Oman - Construction Recovers in Q2 2018
Figure 60: Qatar - Construction Continues to Expand at a Rapid Pace
Figure 61: Kuwait - Output Continues to Decline
Figure 62: Sub-Saharan Africa, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2013-2017 vs 2018-2022
Figure 63: Sub-Saharan Africa, Construction Output Growth (Real, average % change), 2018-2022
Figure 64: Sub-Saharan Africa, Construction Output Value (Real, US$ 2017 billion)
Figure 65: Kenya - Strong Growth, But Slowing from Previous High
Figure 66: Ghana - Continued Healthy Growth
Figure 67: South Africa - Construction Industry Drops Back
Figure 68: Cameroon - Regaining Steady Growth Momentum

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